I think I mentioned earlier in this call, banks are in different positions. 10-K EPS of $3.57 beats by $0.47 | Revenue of $34.55B (18.08% Y/Y) beats by $320.96M JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( NYSE: JPM.PK) Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call 14, 2023 Corporate Participants: Jeremy Barnum Chief Financial Officer James Dimon Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Analysts: Steve Chubak Wolfe Research Analyst Ken Usdin We expect that to normalize around the middle of the year with the associated charge-offs falling about six months later. So, given that, we expect to resume share repurchases this quarter. Revenue of $3.5 billion was up 46% year-on-year, driven by higher deposit margins. Investment Banking revenue of $1.6 billion was down 24% year-on-year. That's fine. And maybe expand upon that. You know, and the reason that we talk about potentially punitive increases, I mean, if you study this issue closely, is just to point out that under the version of the world where you get the worst outcome in all of the different moving parts of this thing, it's a very significant increase to the capital requirements of the system as a whole. And then just as a follow-up, if I heard you correctly, can you give us a little more color, I think you mentioned in building the loan loss reserve this quarter, you identified some one-off credits. Seeking Alpha's transcripts team is And then one for you, Jamie. OK. Let's drill down into NII then. We're guessing. Hey, Jamie, your CEO letter said the banking crisis isn't over. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call. Betsy Graseck -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst. You could say, subject to the caveat that this is a little bit hard, not science, that there's some down payment on the six. Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Okay. All rights reserved. And you've seen us do that with investment portfolios and we're also willing to do that with capital. And Markets revenue was down $371 million or 4% year-on-year. And so, yeah, so then you were asking about the assumptions in credit overall. That's answer number one. But remember, this is offset in markets NIR. But themes remain consistent, and we will continue to give you more detail throughout the year, including at Investor Day in May. Your lines will be muted for the duration of the call. Now, we can do it our own pace and look what other people are doing.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q1 2023 Earnings Call To listen to the call, dial 1 (888) 324 3618 (US) or +1 (312) 470 You know, they're going to work through whether international laws or international requirements. But even relative to 2019, 2022 was was a relatively weak year. The next question comes from the line of John McDonald with Autonomous Research. Net charge-offs were $1.1 billion, up about $500 million year-on-year, in line with expectations as delinquency levels continue to normalize across portfolios. But I would remind you that it's not just denominator expansion. In wholesale, we would expect to see a little bit of continued attrition, you know, especially of the nonoperating-type balances. You may disconnect at this time. And, you know -- and I also want to point out, we don't know exactly capital needs to be at this point.
Call Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability. And just in terms of appetite for the buyback, just given some of the elevated macro uncertainty. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Two questions to that. You've seen a lot of the private equity do the life insurance companies, and I expect that we're going to come up with a whole bunch of different things over time. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. We don't know what the rate curve is going to be in the year. Commercial banking reported net income of 1.4 billion. So. It might be a slight positive in that line. So Betsy, your question is very good. And internal migration there will be a driver. It's not what we want, but that is a possible outcome. So the primary driver really is lower deposit rate paid expectations across both consumer and wholesale, which, as you mentioned, is driven by a couple of factors. Expenses of 1.3 billion were up 18% year on year. Betsy, we really don't have any new information there, right? Next, the outlook on page nine. Next, the CIB on page five. And then just the overall backdrop today. So, as we look forward, we expect to continue to produce strong returns in the near term, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our through-the-cycle target of 17% ROTCE. The centralized team does it. Let's see if that happens. So, we're going to give you some detail around that. And given the recent focus on commercial real estate, let me remind you that our office sector exposure is less than 10% of our portfolio and is focused in the urban dense markets, and nearly two-thirds of our loans are multifamily, primarily in supply-constrained markets. Please stand-by. Deposits were down 14% year on year, up 1% quarter on quarter, primarily reflecting attrition on nonoperating deposits. So that's kind of working well. And we don't want our company to be terrified of errors so we don't do anything, and if the complacency isn't burdened by bureaucracy, which is stasis and death. And I do think it's just worth saying, I think you're sort of hinting at this a little bit when you talk about the behavior of corporates. Okay. Your line will be muted for the duration of the call. All earnings call transcripts on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) stock. And of course, banks are competing for the capital money now. This call is being recorded. Card outstandings were up 21%, driven by strong new account growth and revolve normalization. Expenses of 19 billion were up 1.1 billion, or 6%, year on year, primarily driven by higher structural expense and investments. Yeah, sure. Good morning. Sure. It wasn't a writedown this year. Note that in line with my comments at the outset, recent deposit balance increases are not a meaningful contributor to the upward revision in the NII outlook, given that we expect a meaningful portion of the recent inflows to reverse later in the year. And in auto, originations were $9.2 billion, up 10% year-on-year. Combined debtor and credit -- debit and credit spend is up 9% year on year. I'm wondering if you could update us on what unemployment rate you're assuming in your reserves. You've heard it from real estate investors already. Just kind of -- just your general thinking about the other read-throughs of what lower rates quicker will mean for the broader economy. Credit metrics deteriorate for borrowers, whether in consumer or wholesale, and that might make them leave our pre-existing risk appetite, but we're not running around aggressively tightening standards right now. Levis: Buy On The Dip Or Downtrend In Play? I think when we do Investor Day in May, we may give you a more interesting number, which is what do we think our ROTCE will be if we have a real recession, which I think, even in a real recession, it would probably equal the average industrial company, which is good. We've got our smartest people figure out every angle to reduce capital requirements for JPMorgan. You know, unreasonable capital outcomes will increase costs into the real economy, which goes into the numerator too. Mike Mayo -- Wells Fargo Securities -- Analyst. Both discretionary and nondiscretionary spend are up year on year, the strongest growth in discretionary being travel. You know, as you think about 2023, do you think JPMorgan can hit that 17% ROTCE that you laid out in Investor Day even with the headwind NII and headwind in the provision? There are some tailwinds in there through the OCI, but we believe there will likely be some offsets in harsher credit shocks in the numbers. But of course, it wouldn't be appropriate to reflect a full-blown, hard landing in our current numbers since the probability of that is clearly well below 100%. Yeah, I hear you. And my follow-up is, is exactly in that line of questioning. Do you consider yourself back in? You know, keep in mind is, if we got to a relative adverse case, call that a 6% unemployment -- and then once you get there, you assume the average weighting you have wins. That's why Jeremy is saying the reserve is higher than the base case. So, I think the thing that's interesting about banking right now is that the declines have been so significant, obviously, from very elevated levels. I'm curious to see if things have gotten cheap enough. We're very proud of the 2022 results, producing an 18% ROTCE and record revenue in what was a quite dynamic environment. And don't just think of just the Fed funds rate because I think you should -- for our planning, I'd be thinking more about, it could be 6%, and don't -- and then think about the five and 10-year rate, which could be 5%. And in line with what we previously said, we resumed stock buybacks this quarter and distributed a total of $1.9 billion in net repurchases back to shareholders. That's it. I guess maybe, Jeremy, just following up on the credit assumptions underlying. Betsy, did we just lose you? Well, I would just -- first of all, I don't quite believe it. Two quarters out, we know a little bit less. We think a more sustainable NII ex-Markets run rate in the medium term is well below this quarter's $84 billion as well as below the $80 billion that is implied for the rest of the year by our full-year guidance. But we felt that in line with what Jamie just said in terms of a little bit of tightening as a result of the events of March, it made sense to add a little bit of weight to our relative adverse case. Do you see that in terms of anything you look at in terms of lending that -- and is that a reaction that makes sense that banks might be retrenching a lot here? The short-term CD, in particular, is really getting a lot of positive feedback from our folks in the branches. Expenses of 8 billion were up 3% year on year, primarily driven by investments as well as higher compensation, largely offset by auto lease depreciation from lower volumes. Do you anticipate a significant moderation in trading activity or not? So, just to be clarified, so I would say that Marianne and Jenn, when it comes to credit, debit, checks, and all the consumer-related stuff and talk is, which, I think, was you saw the presentation about payments at Investor Day, reporting to Daniel. And, you know, 17 -- and remember, 17 is very good. Let's see what the boss thinks. And I'll just remind you that at a conference in February, I suggested that we were already starting to feel like some of the uncertainties we mentioned when giving the guidance had started all moving in the same direction. Remember, we're kind of conservative there too. Yes, we can. The net reserve build of 1.4 billion was driven by updates to the firm's macroeconomic outlook, which now reflects a mild recession in the central case, as well as loan growth in card services, partially offset by a reduction in pandemic-related uncertainty. Now, let's go to our businesses starting on Page 5. I mean, that's an interesting question, Erika. This -- I'd like to answer that. Thanks, Steve. And I guess just as a follow-up on, you've managed RWA growth pretty well when you look at, like, loan growth year over year, which is RWA still relatively flat. So, the vast majority of the loan balances in commercial real estate are that sort of affordable multifamily housing, commercial term lending stuff, which is really quite secure from a credit perspective for a variety of reasons. How's your comfort level that you're going to see those back-ended benefits relative to the past? So now that -- I say to all of our clients, now would be the time to fix it. That number, you can imagine, this is a little inside baseball now, the number that we're talking about for 2024 is not based upon an implied curve. And in liquidity, we saw net inflows of 33 billion for the quarter and net outflows of 55 billion for the year. Do you worry about that for the economy in terms of credit crunch? There was a gain last year. So, if we have better uses for the money, those will come first. And that's not -- you know, we've always pointed out to you or sometimes we're over-earning and sometimes under-earning. So in the event that you get that higher for longer, just how much does that impact the NII ex-Markets? You mentioned the Fed cuts coming sooner and positive feedback on the customer offers. You see it in our leverage lending book, you see the success of our investment, you see it in the quality of our products and services. Some of that correction happens naturally. Average deposits were down 16% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter, predominantly driven by continued attrition and non-operating deposits as well as seasonally lower balances. It would probably be negative in other lines. Q4 2022 13 Jan 2023: Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript: Q3 2022 14 Oct 2022: Credit card spend was up 13% year-on-year. Please stand by. Sorry, Jeremy, I couldn't help myself here, but in Barr's December speech, he strongly hinted at capital requirements moving higher for you and peers. This call is being recorded. So, you know, we've got best guesses for all of those in the outlook. I wouldn't use the word credit crunch, if I were you. And so we're quite cautious in that and quite thoughtful about that. The stress test -- the CCAR stress test, as you know, had rates going down. So, we have now almost 500 billion. Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team. Good morning. Get daily stock ideas from top-performing Wall Street analysts. This quarter, we had two significant items in corporate: a $914 million gain on the sale of Visa B shares, offset by 874 million of net investment securities loss. View Ford Soars 30% YTD After Breaking Out: What's Next? In terms of credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $1.4 billion, reflecting reserve builds of $300 million in Card and $50 million in Home Lending. Thanks for taking my questions. Follow this link to access the live webcast. Jeremy, you reminded us of the relatively low office exposure for JPM, but obviously, you're big players in the CRE market. You may proceed. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year. Yeah.
NIKE, Inc. (NKE) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript G-SIFI is supposed to be correct. I mean, I think, clearly, if you go back like a year, we were maybe a little bit more optimistic that it might be across all the different levers and all the different pieces of it closer to capital neutral. And the trajectory that we've talked about in the presentation, they definitely can capture something more than a very mild soft landing.
Bank of America Earnings To your point, Jamie, the returns are still good. It could be asset management, could be commercial, could be everything, in the payments. Who negotiates them? Thank you. And I was proud of them.
JPMorgan Of course, we don't know. And you're going to see some internal migration there out of noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing over time. You know, I appreciate that there is a significant amount of, you know, uncertainty in this year's NII forecast in particular. The next question is coming from the line of Steve Chubak from Wolfe Research. Now, turning to expenses on Page 11. Yeah. [Technical Issues] from the line of Steve Chubak with Wolfe Research. So to wrap up, our strong results this quarter once again highlight the earnings power of this diversified franchise. So well, again, watching it.
Transcript But ultimately, who's accountable when an investment doesn't go right, like the Frank deal or another deal, or some of the other $81 billion that you expect to spend this year? And we expect people, when they talk to all of us, is the good, the bad, the ugly. And Jeremy pointed out, it's very important, that yield curve will not be the same six months from now that it is today. We want healthy community banks. We have benefited from our fortress principles and commitment to invest, which we will continue to do as we head into an increasingly uncertain environment. So you have to overweigh that and that's embedded in our assumptions. Expenses of $7.5 billion were up 2% year-on-year as higher headcount and wage inflation were largely offset by lower revenue-related compensation. We'll talk to you all soon. So, for example, in this year's ultimate outcome, and the number that we wound up ending in 2022, the year-on-year change in volume and revenue-related expense, still finding the number of employees show you more than yesterday, but it's probably closer to $1 million. Of course, you know he's a very bright man. And so, continue to see new production. Are there still opportunities to optimize that going into whatever the Fed comes out with on Basel? Sure. You know, as you deliver on the positive operating leverage side, it gives you room to absorb some more capital, obviously, and still hit those, you know, IRR and rosy targets on incremental investments. Yeah. I mean, really, like, at one point, when it's 500 billion of that, $1 trillion liquidity, all those thing's enough. I mean, so you can't look at JPMorgan and say, well, it's a capital issue. That will be every quarter for the rest of our lives. And then you have the online banks, you've got treasury bills, you've got money market funds. We obviously don't know. Fair enough. *Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Let me -- a follow-up on that. Regarding the deposit inflows, at the firm-wide level, average deposits were down 3% quarter-on-quarter, while end-of-period deposits were up 2% quarter-on-quarter, implying an intra-quarter reversal of the recent outflow trend as a consequence of the March events. Terms are better, pricing is better. I mean, it's a fair question. And number four, it's a competitive market. We ended the year ranked No.
JPMorgan Never miss a Corporate Participants: Jeremy Barnum Chief Financial Officer James Dimon Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Analysts: Ken Usdin Jefferies Analyst Ebrahim Poonawala Bank of America Merrill I guess, you know, with respect to CECL, I'm guessing that it should top out quite soon. OK. And then on the -- one follow-up, just coming back to the reserving process, can you just help us understand, relative to the 5% peak in 3Q that you gave for your unemployment rate quarterly average and the 3.9 average baseline, just where does this fourth quarter reserve get you to? You may proceed. In terms of credit performance this quarter, product costs were 1.8 billion, reflecting reserve builds of 800 million in card and 200 million home lending. So they have options. There will be some information content about that release that could shape our decisions as well. Understanding RSI: A Powerful Momentum Indicator for Stock Analysis. This call is being recorded. This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. But that's a lot of certain front-loaded expenses for less certain back-ended benefits. They are just -- there is a whole bunch of different types and analytically, you go through each one and try to figure out what the stickiness is and what the stickiness is and etc., and so. You've already seen things calm down quite a bit, particularly in deposit flows. You're facing difficult comps in the coming year. Quarter Transcript; 2023. Looking at the full-year results on Page 3. I guess, maybe one question. Yeah, a couple of things there, Glenn. Consumer cash buffers for the lower-income segments are expected to be back to pre-pandemic levels by the third quarter of this year. So I'll prefer the former, not the latter. Yeah. The other thing that caught my eye in the letter is, you mentioned that you're exploring new capital optimization strategies, including partnerships and securitizations. Welcome to JPMorgan Chases First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. So, let's do banking first. That's all it is. Is that -- that's the question. Revenue was up 12% year on year, predominantly driven by higher card services NII on higher revolving balances, partially offset by lower auto lease income. $428B Today's Change (0.80%) $1.17 Current Price $146.61 Price as of July 3, 2023, 4:00 p.m.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript - MSN But I think our multifamily lending portfolio is quite low risk in the scheme of things. But, as relates to the Frank acquisition that's been in the news, I'm just wondering what that says about the financial discipline for the 15 deals that you pursued, the $7 billion of investing each year, and the one-fifth increase in expenses over three years to your guide of 81 billion in 2023. That's great. Thank you. So, good call on your part. Home lending revenue was down 46% year on year, largely driven by lower production revenue. Payments revenue was $2.4 billion, up 26% year-on-year. You'll notice in our presentation that we renamed consumer and business banking to banking and wealth management. So it's just -- the number of banks off-site, you can count in your hands in terms of like too much interest rate exposure, too much ATM, too much uninsured deposits. In Home Lending, revenue was down 38% year-on year, largely driven by lower net interest income from tighter loan spreads and lower production revenue. I thought there was a writedown there. So, look, I totally appreciate the desire for more specific guardrails. The adjustments that we make to the scenarios to reflect a slightly more conservative outlook have us, you know, imply a peak unemployment that's notably higher than that. And I would just remind you that there are a lot of different levers. OK. Let me make that clear. So, I guess we're hitting about 40 billion for 1H, and then a sharp drop-off. So, these are still very good numbers, and, you know, we're going to wait and see and we'll report to you. At this time, I would I do want to unpack the question here on the possibility of higher for longer rates and how that impacts you in your non-markets NII --.
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